Honest opinion: This is the first time in the Bruce Arena era that I've felt like the LA Galaxy are underdogs going into a playoff series.
They won in 2011, 2012 and 2014, and I was not surprised even once. They lost in the 2009 MLS Cup, and I was surprised. I was shocked when they got run out of the building in 2010 against FC Dallas. And while the 2013 Western Conference semifinals against RSL were pretty even heading into the home-and-home series, I think most figured that the then two-time defending MLS Cup champions were slight favorites.
They aren't favorites this time. Not on Wednesday night (10 pm ET; UniMas in US; TSN2 & RDS2 in Canada) when the Galaxy travel way up I-5 to Seattle, where they get to take on a Sounders team that spends on their own big names, has their own cabinet filled with trophies, has 45,000 screaming fans, and has a rug that LA pretty openly despise.
The Trends: Seattle haven't been beaten in nine across all competitions. Some of those (including a 1-1 home draw vs. LA in early October) have been pretty ugly, but they've largely gotten the results they needed while, at the same time, getting progressively healthier.
LA, on the other hand, have won just once in their last seven, have just one shutout in their last seven, and have a 2-9-6 record away from StubHub Center.
What Seattle Will Do: Slow builds and high-quality shots
The Sounders are probably best known for their ability to run 2-vs-5 counterattacks through Obafemi Martins and Clint Dempsey. When those two guys are locked in, they're absolutely devastating.
But when Seattle were playing their best earlier this season, it was a team effort. They held huge amounts of possession and were meticulous in working toward the very best shot they could find after playing long strings of passes out of the back and through midfield.
As a result they were near the bottom of the league in shots attempted, but at the very top in terms of expected goals per shot (a stat that's tracked in the world of advanced analytics). You also couldn't really rush them into taking bad shots:
| Team | Passes | Shots, Total | Passes per shot |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 16032 | 263 | 60.96 |
| Orlando City SC | 15088 | 297 | 50.80 |
| D.C. United | 13816 | 290 | 47.64 |
| Real Salt Lake | 13559 | 294 | 46.12 |
| LA Galaxy | 14542 | 324 | 44.88 |
| Houston Dynamo | 12648 | 283 | 44.69 |
| New York City FC | 14921 | 337 | 44.28 |
| New England Revolution | 13836 | 314 | 44.06 |
| Philadelphia Union | 12878 | 301 | 42.78 |
| Colorado Rapids | 13141 | 317 | 41.45 |
| FC Dallas | 12891 | 311 | 41.45 |
| New York Red Bulls | 15241 | 370 | 41.19 |
| Columbus Crew SC | 15138 | 369 | 41.02 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 12225 | 298 | 41.02 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 12824 | 315 | 40.71 |
| Montreal Impact | 13572 | 343 | 39.57 |
| Chicago Fire | 13589 | 350 | 38.83 |
| Toronto FC | 13244 | 349 | 37.95 |
| Portland Timbers | 13313 | 352 | 37.82 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 12965 | 351 | 36.94 |
That's what we call an "extreme statistical outlier," and I don't think we'll see a regression to the mean in this particular game. LA's forwards won't put enough pressure on Brad Evans and Chad Marshall to hurry them into Route 1, and Seattle's confidence in the ability of Dempsey, Martins and Marco Pappa to combine around the box means the Rave Green will just keep looking for the shot they want, not the shot the defense wants them to take.
How to solve it: Watch the show-and-go
Seattle's ability to combine and find those great shots comes from the movement of their attackers. Both Martins and Dempsey are great at showing for the ball in between the lines, then rolling into space if the central defense comes with them to pressure.
LA struggled with that exact thing against Dom Dwyer and Sporting KC last weekend. They have to be better in this one.
What LA will do: Get Steven Gerrard forward
Even though LA lost 2-1 to Sporting, it was the best they'd looked in weeks. They moved well into and out of gaps, they were able to get on the ball in dangerous spots, and their defensive shape was mostly pretty good (save for a few late rotations).
The big change in this one was putting Juninho into more of a pure defensive midfielder's role while having Steven Gerrard sit in the hole just underneath Giovani Dos Santos and Robbie Keane. That gives Gerrard license to get forward, like so:
Obviously he's got to finish that, but just as obvious is that LA will be pretty content with the idea of those kinds of chances falling to Gerrard. You live and die with your best players, and despite his struggles so far it's a pretty non-controversial opinion to rank Gerrard in the Galaxy's top-three talents.
How to solve it: Keep 'em out of transition
That chance above came off a sloppy turnover, and many of Seattle's bad moments of recent vintage have come off of sloppy turnovers. I'm certain Sigi Schmid has already drawn a straight line between those two truths.
Keeping LA out of transition isn't just about limiting "bad" turnovers, though – it's also about limiting their lanes for immediate distribution and tracking their wide players. If you can force the Galaxy's first pass after recovery to the side or (even better) backwards, you've already done 80 percent of the toughest work.
What's it mean?
It means a Sounders win. They're the better team right now, they're at home, and LA hasn't been this vulnerable in more than half a decade.
